China’s quantum computing advancements have reached a critical tipping point where U.S. intelligence experts now warn that Beijing may soon compromise encryption systems protecting America’s most sensitive financial and national security data.
Key Takeaways
- Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2025 threat assessment reveals China and Russia are nearing operational military use of quantum technologies, with quantum sensing and communications advancing faster than computing.
- Intelligence expert Denis Mandich warns that China’s quantum computing progress is accelerating rapidly, with the nation potentially achieving the 4,000 logical qubits threshold needed to break current encryption systems.
- China is expanding quantum communications networks using quantum key distribution, believed to be immune to eavesdropping, creating unprecedented security threats.
- The U.S. federal government faces urgent pressure to modernize IT systems, adopt post-quantum cryptography, and develop a strong quantum workforce to counter China’s advancements.
- Growing military and technical cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran compounds the threat, with microelectronics remaining a critical chokepoint in technology development.
China’s Quantum Leap Forward Threatens U.S. Security
The 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency threat assessment has delivered a stark warning to America’s national security apparatus: China and Russia are rapidly approaching operational military deployment of quantum technologies that could neutralize key U.S. strategic advantages. Particularly concerning is China’s progress in quantum sensors and communications networks, which are advancing faster than quantum computing itself but creating no less of a threat. These developments could potentially render traditional American stealth technology and GPS systems obsolete, fundamentally altering the global security landscape in Beijing’s favor.
“Although select research areas, such as sensing, are advancing more rapidly, non-governmental experts indicate that development of a quantum computer capable of decryption is unlikely in this decade,” noted DIA analysts in their assessment. However, the report emphasizes that algorithmic advances are reducing the resources needed to compromise sensitive data, potentially accelerating the timeline for quantum threats to U.S. security infrastructure.
— Ronald Reagan Institute (RRI) (@ReaganInstitute) June 10, 2024
Intelligence Expert Sounds Alarm on Chinese Capabilities
Denis Mandich, a veteran of the U.S. intelligence community, delivered a sobering assessment to Congress about China’s quantum computing trajectory. According to Mandich, China is rapidly approaching the threshold of approximately 4,000 logical qubits needed to break current encryption methods, a development that would have catastrophic implications for U.S. national security. The timeline for this capability is contracting faster than many in Washington appreciate, with Mandich emphasizing that America’s traditional technological edge is eroding due to China’s strategic investments and industrial espionage.
“The timeline is shrinking. The threshold is roughly four thousand logical qubits, and leading programs are racing toward that mark already. Delay is not just risky, it’s irrational. Progress in quantum computing is nonlinear and prone to sudden breakthroughs, and our adversaries have every incentive to conceal milestones until it’s too late. But the real danger isn’t only in the quantum threat—it’s our complacency,” warned Denis Mandich, quantum technology expert.
Mandich’s testimony highlighted a particularly troubling reality about China’s quantum strategy: much of it remains hidden from Western observation. “We don’t even know the names of the quantum companies in China. There are only a couple of them that are public. The rest of them are completely unknown,” noted Mandich, underscoring how Beijing’s secretive approach gives it additional strategic advantages in this critical technological race. This information asymmetry compounds the challenge for U.S. intelligence and defense planners trying to assess and counter the quantum threat.
America’s Strategic Response Under President Trump
The Trump administration is facing increasing pressure to accelerate quantum readiness initiatives across federal agencies. Congressional hearings have emphasized the need for the U.S. to become “quantum safe” through the adoption of post-quantum cryptography standards and the modernization of federal IT systems. Critical to this effort is developing a robust quantum workforce capable of matching China’s investments in quantum science and technology, with experts calling for expanded education programs and sustained funding for basic research in quantum technologies.
“[The] United States needs to develop a strong quantum workforce to maintain its leadership position in quantum technology, hardware, and software development. In doing so, leveraging programs, training, and hiring are key. For example, education programs could provide the qualifications and skills needed to work in quantum technologies across both the public and private sectors. Second, the sustained investment is particularly important to advance these technologies. To do so, basic funding for research and early development activities is essential,” stated Marisol Cruz Cain, Director of Information Technology and Cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office.
Adding to these challenges is the growing military and technical cooperation between China, Russia, and other adversarial nations, including North Korea and Iran. The DIA assessment specifically noted this emerging alliance structure, suggesting that quantum technologies and expertise may be shared among these nations to accelerate their collective capabilities against Western security interests. This cooperation extends to microelectronics, which remain “the linchpin of technology competition and represent a critical chokepoint in technology development,” according to intelligence analysts.
The Race Against Time
The quantum threat from China represents more than just a technological challenge – it embodies a fundamental contest for global leadership in the 21st century. While current quantum computers remain noisy and limited in their capabilities, the trajectory of development suggests a rapidly closing window for America to secure its technological advantages. Particularly concerning is the difficulty in detecting and verifying quantum technological breakthroughs until they are deployed, creating a high risk of strategic surprise that could fundamentally alter the global balance of power.
“Microelectronics remain the linchpin of technology competition and represent a critical chokepoint in technology development and acquisition efforts,” emphasized DIA analysts in their report.
The clock is ticking for America to respond to this quantum challenge. While export controls on semiconductors have temporarily slowed China’s progress, Beijing’s domestic investments and global workarounds continue unabated. As quantum technologies gradually integrate into critical military and civilian systems, the nation that masters them first will gain unprecedented advantages in navigation, communications, and target recognition in modern combat environments. This technological race may well determine whether the 21st century is defined by American leadership or Chinese dominance.
