Omar Breaks ‘The Squad’s’ Losing Streak

Representative Ilhan Omar’s recent primary victory has illuminated a shifting landscape within America’s political arena — but is the pendulum swinging back toward moderation?

At a Glance

Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., won her primary against moderate challenger Don Samuels.
Omar’s win breaks the trend of primary losses suffered by other ‘Squad’ members like Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
Heavy outside spending from pro-Israel groups influenced the outcomes in these races.
Omar faced a challenging and expensive campaign but prevailed with a significant margin.

Omar’s Victory Amidst A String of Losses

Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., has once again secured her spot in the upcoming general election by defeating her moderate opponent Don Samuels. This win is significant as it halts the recent streak of primary losses by members of the progressive “Squad,” including Reps. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y. and Cori Bush, D-Mo., who were ousted by more centrist Democrats.

Omar, a third-term lawmaker, is expected to retain her seat in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, a liberal stronghold. Samuels had narrowly lost to Omar in the 2022 primary by just over 2,400 votes, despite significant funding from the United Democracy Project, a super PAC linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which invested $350,000 to try and unseat Omar last time around. This year, the PAC played a less prominent role in Omar’s race, choosing instead to focus on targeting other members of the Squad, including Bowman and Bush.

Outside Influence and Progressive Criticism

Pro-Israel groups spent considerably more on Bowman and Bush’s races, contributing $14.5 million and nearly $9 million, respectively. Both candidates lost to moderate challengers, sparking outrage among progressives regarding the influence of substantial external financial contributions. While Omar also faced criticism over her vocal positions on Israel’s policies, her campaign financial prowess and a relatively scandal-free record provided her with a stronger footing compared to her colleagues. Bowman faced backlash for pulling a fire alarm during a government shutdown vote, and Bush is under investigation for misuse of campaign funds for personal security.

“This campaign has been one of the ugliest, most disgusting campaigns against me that I have ever witnessed,” Omar said during her victory speech.

Omar’s campaign had a significant financial edge, spending $2.6 million on ads compared to Samuel’s meager $32,000. This, combined with endorsements from influential figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders, fortified her standing. Her voter base, galvanized by her focus on local issues such as food security and affordable housing, also played a crucial role. In contrast, Samuels positioned himself as a centrist, criticizing Omar for her divisive rhetoric and stances on police abolition and infrastructure, which ultimately failed to gain enough traction.

Indications of a Political Shift?

Despite Omar’s victory, the defeats of Bowman and Bush could be indicative of a broader trend toward moderation within the Democratic Party. Samuels himself noted, “There’s a movement happening here and other parts of the country away from the far left to a more collaborative style.”

However, Omar’s success underscores the complexities and variances within the progressive movement itself. While the public may be leaning towards moderation in some areas, there is still strong support for progressive ideals among certain voter demographics. As the 2024 elections loom closer, it will be pivotal to watch whether this apparent shift continues or if figures like Omar will maintain their influence within the party.

In the end, Omar’s primary win has not only secured her position but also cast a spotlight on the dynamic and evolving nature of American politics.