Recent polling data reveals Gen Z is becoming the most conservative generation in decades, defying long-held expectations that young voters naturally lean progressive.
Quick Takes
- Trump’s approval rating among 18-29-year-olds rose dramatically to 52.7% in early 2024
- There’s a 23-point gender gap among young voters, with men significantly more likely to support conservative candidates
- AP VoteCast analysis shows Trump won 47% of the 18-29 demographic in 2024, up from 36% in 2020
- Many Gen Z members experienced leftist policies during their formative years under Obama and Biden administrations
- Only 26% of 18-29-year-olds trust mass media, reflecting widespread skepticism
The Unexpected Conservative Shift
Democratic pollster David Shor expressed profound surprise at the political realignment occurring among America’s youngest voters. “This is the thing I am the most shocked by in the last four years—that young people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the Baby Boomers… to becoming potentially the most conservative generation that we’ve experienced maybe in 50 to 60 years,” Shor noted. The data appears conclusive: Generation Z, comprised of those born between 1997 and 2012, is breaking conservative at rates that have shocked political analysts and upended conventional wisdom about youth voting patterns in America.
The numbers tell a compelling story. AtlasIntel polling showed Trump’s approval rating among 18–29-year-olds reached 52.7% in February. More strikingly, AP VoteCast analysis confirmed Trump won 47% of the 18-29 demographic in 2024, representing an 11-point increase from his 36% performance with the same age group in 2020. This shift contradicts decades of political assumptions that Democrats held an insurmountable advantage with younger voters.
Democrats staked their entire future on the assumption that young people would be far left no matter what. Instead, Vox founder Ezra Klein admits that Gen Z is the most conservative generation in decades. Among 18-year-olds, Trump won both white women and non-white men.…
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) March 23, 2025
The Gender Divide
Perhaps the most notable aspect of Gen Z’s conservative turn is the pronounced gender gap. Polling shows a remarkable 23-percentage-point difference in political preferences between young men and women under 30. Young men overwhelmingly support conservative candidates and policies, while young women tend to maintain more progressive views. This division appears to be growing rather than narrowing, creating two distinct political trajectories within the same generation.
“My boyfriend’s very right-leaning; however, a lot of his friends feel that the current way political and social discourse is going, there’s a lot of focus on uplifting marginalized voices, and at times, this can make them feel like their perspectives are being overlooked or dismissed,” said one Gen Z woman interviewed by Buzzfeed.
Many Gen Z women observe this political divergence firsthand in their social circles. Conservative media and social media platforms have gained significant traction among young men, who increasingly report feeling alienated by modern feminism and social justice movements. Some express concern about being unfairly labeled as problematic simply for being straight white males, while others believe the Democratic Party has failed to address issues relevant to their demographic.
A Generation Shaped by Leftist Policies
Unlike previous generations that observed conservative policies and then shifted left in reaction, Gen Z experienced predominantly progressive governance during their formative years. The Obama and Biden administrations, with their left-leaning policies on education, social issues, and economics, created the backdrop against which Gen Z developed their political consciousness. Rather than embracing these policies, a significant portion of this generation appears to be rejecting them.
The COVID-19 pandemic proved particularly influential, as school closures, isolation, and significant learning losses affected this generation directly. Additionally, many have witnessed firsthand the effects of progressive policies on issues like border security, crime rates, and homelessness in their communities. These lived experiences appear to be driving political realignment more powerfully than academic theories or media narratives could anticipate. Gen Z’s skepticism toward institutions is evident in polling showing only 26% of 18-29-year-olds trust mass media.
Implications for Future Elections
This generational shift has profound implications for American politics. Democrats’ long-held assumption that demographic changes would naturally favor their party appears increasingly tenuous. As New York Times columnist Ezra Klein observed, “Democrats are getting destroyed now among young voters… They thought that this was a last gasp of something and that if Donald Trump couldn’t run up his numbers among seniors and you had Millennials and Gen Z really coming into voting power, that would be the end of this Republican Party. That is just completely false.”
While it remains uncertain whether this conservative trend will continue or reverse as Gen Z ages, the data suggests a fundamental realignment may be underway. Political strategists from both parties are now recalibrating their approaches to reach this generation, recognizing that traditional assumptions about youth voting patterns appear increasingly outdated in today’s political landscape. What remains clear is that America’s youngest voters are defying expectations and charting their own political course.
