Record-Breaking Texas Burn Rate

Texas Senator Ted Cruz says the fight for his state’s other Senate seat will cost close to $200 million, a number that shows how far campaign spending has climbed even in a single midterm race.

Quick Take

Ted Cruz told CBS News the Texas Senate race will be a “$200 million” fight between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Representative James Talarico.
Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has out-raised Paxton by tens of millions of dollars in back-to-back quarters.
Outside groups tied to both parties are already spending big, with a Cruz-linked super PAC and a pro-Talarico PAC both pouring in millions.
The race fits a national pattern of Senate contests where outside spending now often outpaces what the candidates raise themselves.

Cruz Puts A Price Tag On The Race

Cruz made the comment during an interview with CBS News’ Major Garrett that aired August 24. When Garrett asked if the race would hit $100 million, Cruz doubled the figure. “$200 million,” he said, adding, “It’s going to be expensive.” Cruz was describing the contest between Paxton, the sitting Texas attorney general, and Talarico, a Democratic state lawmaker running for the open Senate seat.

Cruz is not on the ballot in this race himself, but he holds Texas’ other Senate seat and has taken an active role backing Paxton. His comments give Republicans and Democrats alike a clear signal that both parties expect to spend heavily to win Texas, a state the GOP has held for decades but where Democrats see an opening.

Fundraising Numbers Already Show A Wide Gap

Money reports filed with the Federal Election Commission back up Cruz’s warning. Talarico raised $30 million in the second quarter of 2026, more than triple what Paxton brought in during the same period. A later count put Talarico’s quarterly haul at $31.6 million against Paxton’s $9.3 million, with Talarico’s total fundraising since 2025 reaching $72 million.

Paxton’s second-quarter total of over $9 million still marked his best fundraising stretch of the campaign, a sign that major Republican donors are lining up behind him even as he trails. Talarico’s early hauls, including a $27 million quarter reported in April, have already broken Texas Senate fundraising records once held by former candidate Beto O’Rourke.

Outside Groups Are Piling On

Beyond what the candidates raise themselves, outside groups are adding real money to the fight. A super PAC tied to Cruz called Truth and Courage launched a more than $1.7 million ad campaign on broadcast television and Fox News in Houston to boost Paxton. On the other side, a pro-Talarico super PAC named Moment of Truth has told donors it plans to spend up to $62 million on ads, polling and research through November.

Texas conservatives, wake up.

Ken Paxton just posted his best fundraising quarter yet — about $9 million. Solid. Necessary. And still nowhere close to the flood of cash pouring in for James Talarico.

The other side is sitting on multiples of that money, blanketing airwaves, and… pic.twitter.com/JINeXkFP1G

— Keith Ainsworth (@AinsworthKeith) August 20, 2026

This kind of outside spending has become the norm in competitive Senate races across the country. Groups unrelated to the campaigns themselves spent an average of $3 million per Senate race in 2010, a figure that jumped to more than $8 million per race by 2014. In Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate race, outside spenders alone poured in $119 million. The Texas race looks likely to follow that same climbing trend.

What The Big Numbers Mean For Voters

For many Texans, the size of these totals raises a familiar question: who is all this money really serving? Both parties are counting on wealthy donors and national super PACs to shape a race that will decide control of a U.S. Senate seat, not just the candidates’ own campaign war chests. That reality feeds a broader frustration shared by voters on the left and right, who often feel that big political money, not everyday citizens, drives what happens in Washington.

Whether or not the race actually reaches $200 million, Cruz’s estimate puts a number on a trend voters have watched grow for years. Campaign costs keep rising, outside groups keep spending more, and candidates keep leaning on national donor networks rather than local support alone. As Election Day approaches, both campaigns and their allied PACs are expected to keep raising and spending at a pace that could make Texas one of the most expensive Senate races in the country’s history.